Geopolitical forces favoring the resumption of container trade through the Red Sea and the corresponding commercial reluctance to do so are converging after nearly two years of most ships diverting around southern Africa to avoid attacks by Houthi militants.

The conflicting interests became apparent in late November when the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) issued a statement indicating that Maersk planned to resume normal transits in December, triggering a quick response from the carrier that no timeline had been set.

But the contours of a clash are taking shape.

Facing monthly losses of $800 million, Egypt President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said earlier this year the country desperately wants full use of the canal to resume without further delay. After exerting little influence to reopen the Canal, Egypt saw fresh hope after the Oct. 13 Israel-Hamas peace summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, attended by Sisi, US President Donald Trump and representatives of 20 countries.

The SCA on Nov. 25 said the event “succeeded in paving the way for restoring the rates of traffic in the region back to normal.”

Despite the pushback by Maersk and its Gemini partner Hapag-Lloyd, the peace conference was potentially significant regarding the Suez. The conference endorsed the October agreement between Hamas and Israel to end the war in Gaza, the hostilities that led the Houthis to start firing on shipping in late 2023. So, in theory, the end of active fighting between Israel and Hamas should end the attacks and fully reopen the waterway.

But it’s not so simple. Mideast analysts have little confidence that hostilities have truly ended, and thus say the pause in attacks by the Houthis disclosed in early November is in fact not permanent.

The tenuous nature of Mideast peace was reflected in ships failing to return to the Red Sea following a May announcement by Trump of a deal with the Houthis, under which the US would stop bombing the Iran-aligned group and the militants would stop menacing ships seeking to transit the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

Carriers’ views are complex

Carriers say they believe the Suez is the natural route connecting Asia and Europe. CMA CGM Egypt & Sudan Cluster CEO Tariq Zaghloul was quoted by the Canal authority in early November saying “there is no alternative to the Suez.”

But carriers are also disinclined to resume normal transits and perform extensive reworking of their networks, including transshipment points, only to have to re-divert if shipping were to come under renewed attack.

”We need to see consistent stability and tangible progress before routing vessels back through the Suez Canal,” Hapag-Lloyd said on Nov. 19.

Thus, in assessing the real situation, carriers have thus far concluded that not enough has changed to warrant resumption of normal routings between Asia and Europe and Asia and the North American East Coast.

“The Houthi decision to pause attacks is probably a tactical decision to allow the group to rearm and rebuild damaged infrastructure,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote on Nov. 12 in an assessment he said is unchanged as of Nov. 26.

“Although it reduces the likelihood of attacks on shipping while the Gaza ceasefire holds, there remains a severe risk of attacks on vessels in transit in the one-year outlook if, as is likely, the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel breaks down permanently without progressing to its later stages,” Kennedy said.

There are reasons why it is to the Houthi’s advantage to continue the attacks, he said.

“The Houthis have incentive to continue some level of attack activity in the Red Sea and against Israel in the one-year outlook in order to secure external financial and military support and to continue to generate domestic support within Yemen,” Kennedy said. S&P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.

With the ongoing diversions serving as stark evidence that Mideast peace is tenuous, Egypt — in citing the peace conference as having cleared the way to normal transits — is hoping to draw a straight line between geopolitics and the ongoing diversions. And they are hoping the US draws the same line, seeing the issue in big picture terms and rejecting obstacles tied to the operational realities of shipping.

“If the [Trump] administration links the canal disruption directly to their broader peace deal efforts in the Middle East, they could ramp up the regulatory or diplomatic playbook,” said Andrew Petrisin, who served as deputy assistant secretary for multimodal freight within the US Department of Transportation from June 2024 to January 2025 and is now CEO of Laneway, an online platform that enables the trading of guaranteed container space.

Petrisin told the Journal of Commerce the White House, in an effort to pressure carriers to resume transits through the Suez, could try to frame the vessel diversions as causing rising costs for consumers.

“If they decide that avoiding the Suez is driving inflation, given the recent election results and the focus on affordability, they may try to frame the carriers’ safety decisions as raising prices,” Petrisin said. “Politically, this angle is an easier sell than a complex argument about how commercial shipping impacts a peace treaty.”

Economists have previously told the Journal of Commerce they see no evidence in data that the diversions are impacting inflation in the US. Any effort to point the finger at ocean carriers would echo the Biden administration’s rhetoric blaming carriers for price gouging during the pandemic.

US security guarantees?

From the point of view of carriers, their reluctance to resume Suez transits remains high due to safety risks. The financial advantage of vessel diversions, never mentioned by carriers, is a consideration in the background given that resumption of Suez transits would dump about 10% of global capacity back into the market and soften freight rates, although the effect would be muted over several months by the extensive port congestion many believe would result from a massive realignment of East-West networks.

“There are many pieces to fall in place before they can [resume Suez transits], and insurance is one factor,” said Patrick Fay, CEO of BOC International.

Thus, according to industry sources, resuming Suez transits would likely require more than mere rhetoric from the US administration. For example, the US would likely have to put security guarantees in place beyond what it has already done, perhaps increasing its naval presence in the region, industry sources say.

But that would run into a view expressed by Mideast analysts that the Houthis are too agile and dug in within Yemen to be eliminated as a military threat to shipping.

And if efforts were made by the US to impose fines on carriers for not using the Suez, were it to come to that, carriers would resist, Petrisin believes. “I don’t see a world where they risk the safety of their people and fleets for fear of a port fee,” he said.

Contact Peter Tirschwell at  This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .