The shipping and logistics sector appears to be acclimating to a year of tariff-related shocks that drove shippers to rush goods to key markets.
Prices for routes between the Far East and the United States peaked dramatically in June, with prices for routes between Shanghai and Los Angeles in particular climbing to USD 5,914 (EUR 5,055) for a 40-foot-equivalent unit (FEU), according to the Drewry World Container Index. By 28 August, however, prices had fallen steeply to around USD 2,522 (EUR 2,156) for the same route.
Experts attributed the contraction of rates to the fact that logistics industry stakeholders had now gotten somewhat used to uncertainty around tariffs and would no longer be as likely to dramatically change their behavior as each new policy development gets announced.
Still, tariffs and other U.S. policies will continue to play a role in how shipping trends occur, according to Drewry Supply Chain Advisors Senior Manager Hind Chitty, who noted that the “volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on Trump’s future tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of U.S. penalties on Chinese ships, which are uncertain.”
Xeneta, which tracks prices for shipping containers globally, said that though rates have come back down recently, the situation was more dynamic than it might appear.
Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand said that higher costs were still being absorbed by "smaller shippers who may not have the same negotiating power or market insight to push back against increasing rates."
"These smaller shippers face a different reality, and their nervousness is seeing them pay the higher rate," he said. "Larger-volume shippers who tend to occupy the market mid-low are still shipping goods at almost the same rate as a week ago."
The Global Port Tracker, operated by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, predicted that overall shipping volumes into the U.S., which reached near-record highs in early summer, were likely to continue to decline throughout H2 2025.
NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold said that the likely decline was due to reciprocal tariffs and the costs of ongoing uncertainty taking their toll on businesses and consumers.
“We ... continue to see more and more sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope of products,” he said. “Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success.”
In other shipping news, the Port of Long Beach in California, the second-largest cargo port in the U.S., was shut down early 9 September when a docked vessel, The Mississippi, dropped 67 containers into the water.
Port Spokesperson Art Marroqui told the L.A. Times that the cause of the container spill was not yet known but did confirm that there had been no injuries caused by the accident.