According to Drewry, it is not uncommon for the two markets to veer in different directions for a period of time, but the containership charter market has broken records by experiencing a boom for most of the past five years. Freight rates are much more susceptible to changes in market dynamics, whereas charter rates can often lag freight rates due to multi-month, and even multi-year, fixtures that are set in contractual stone.

Credit: Drewry

These same factors are at play once more, but this time on steroids. Some of the key drivers for this current decoupling between freight and charter rates, in Drewry’s view, are: 

1. Tight vessel availability and supply-side rigidity

The core driver of this divergence is vessel scarcity. While demand-side signals (i.e. falling spot freight rates) suggest a cooling market, the supply of available charter tonnage remains constrained. Major liner operators like MSC and CMA CGM have absorbed significant volumes of second-hand tonnage, effectively shrinking the fleet available to non-operating owners (NOOs).

The liner-owned fleet share has increased from 54% in late 2019, to 64% as of early October 2025, a structural shift that reduces market liquidity and gives NOOs greater pricing power. This imbalance has enabled owners to secure long-term charters at premium rates, irrespective of short-term freight volatility.

2. Geopolitical disruption and extended voyage times

Ongoing geopolitical tensions – including Red Sea insecurity – have disrupted traditional trade routes, forcing carriers to reroute ships via the Cape of Good Hope. These extended voyages reduce effective vessel availability and create scheduling unpredictability, which in turn inflates the demand for spot and time-chartered tonnage.

3. Strategic carrier behaviour and forward fixing

Some shipping lines are increasingly focused on service reliability, alliance obligations, and fleet continuity – especially in the face of an uncertain operating environment. This has prompted a shift toward securing long-term charters as a strategic hedge against future disruptions and rate volatility. The result is a surge in forward-fixing activity, with particularly high demand for modern, fuel-efficient vessels.

4. Regulatory pressure and compliance incentives

The introduction and enforcement of emissions-related regulations under IMO and the EU ETS are reshaping fleet preferences. Charterers are now placing a premium on dual-fuel and eco-efficient ships, which are not only regulatory-compliant, but also offer commercial flexibility amid tightening emissions standards. This has added a further constraint on supply, pushing compliant tonnage into a scarcity premium category.

These factors combined mean that NOOs are arguably the most insulated and advantaged players in the current market.

So, when can we expect the two markets to reconnect? 

According to Drewry, no change is expected next year, as the same factors will continue to apply, with carriers maintaining long-term ship charters. Average global freight rates (spot and contract) are projected to decline by approximately 16%.

A correction in the charter market is anticipated over time, similar to expectations for a stock market decline following an extended boom. Slowing demand growth, compressed carrier profit margins, a continued stream of newbuild deliveries, and a potential return of Suez Canal transits may eventually reduce the need for ship charters, leading long-term commitments by carriers to unwind.