Shippnig future- Game Changers
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- Category: General
- Published on Sunday, 07 December 2014 19:56
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Game Changers
http://futureshipping.dnvgl.com/#global-trends/game-changers
A sudden, unexpected change in an existing situation or activity is known as a “game-changer”. Looking into the distant future, we have identified some possible game changers for shipping resulting from existing global trends and drivers.
Unmanned vessel concepts
Advances in ICT will allow vessels to be fully operated from shore. Unmanned vessels will have lower operational costs than convention vessels due to the elimination of on-board crew costs, risk of human error and threats to crew safety.
Risk of hijacking
Unmanned ships remain controversial. Such vessels would be more vulnerable to hijacking than manned vessels. For example, a hijacked vessel could be ransomed or used in a terrorist attack against shore based facilities.
A ban on fossil fuels
If the impact of climate change is more severe than predicted, humanity may be forced to ban the use of fossil fuels. This would have dramatic consequences for almost all parts of the shipping industry.
A new energy crisis
Export bans or conflicts in energy-producing countries could result in a lasting global energy crisis, leading to sky-high fuel prices for shipping. A long-term energy crisis could dwarf the price hikes the industry experienced in the 1970s, forcing shipping companies to rethink existing business models, ship design and operation.
Technological breakthroughs
A technological breakthrough, for example one that would solve the problem of emissions from shipping, would be a major game changer. This could for example be in the form of a new, cheap clean fuel type or a simple, affordable carbon capture and storage solution on-board ships.
An irrelevant IMO
Over the next decades, states and regional organisations may take on a larger role in regulating international shipping independent of the system now managed by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). States may develop and enforce regional emissions control areas with different requirements, as we have seen in the US and the EU. If the IMO is unable to adapt, it risks losing legitimacy and could become irrelevant by 2050.
Collapse in transport demand
A major global economic crisis or a global event (such as a series of natural disasters) could result in a sudden and catastrophic collapse in demand. Disruptive technologies may also impact trade. For example, local 3D printing could eliminate the need to transport certain goods.