Oryza White Rice Index - Holds Steady as Market Watches Thailand Political Crisis, El Nino Impact

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oryza white rice index

The Oryza White Rice Index, a weighted average of global white rice export quotes, ended this week at $462 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about $7 per ton from a month ago and down about $17 per ton from a year ago. Thailand Thailand 5% broken rice (new crop) is today shown at about $385 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week ago, up about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $110 per ton from a year ago. The Thai Rice Farmers Association is asking the current military government to consider alternatives to assist rice farmers after the rice pledging scheme ended in February 2014.  In addition to recommending financial assistance in the range of 2,500 baht per rai (about $481 per hectare), they suggested the government focus on reducing production costs such as subsidizing fertilizers and insecticides and developing reliable irrigation systems.  Meanwhile, Finance Ministry sources say that the failed rice pledging scheme has escalated the country’s public debt, which may reach 5.55 trillion baht (about $171 billion), equivalent to about 46% of the  country’s gross domestic product, in FY 2014 (October 2013-September 2014). Thailand’s Commerce Ministry plans to auction more rice through the Agriculture Futures Exchange of Thailand (AFET), according to local sources, but first needs the military government’s approval. The Thai Finance Ministry has raised three-year loans of about 40 billion baht (about $1.2 billion) to complete payments for the now-defunct rice pledging scheme, reports Reuters. The head of the Thai military government has said that it will be at least a year before the country is ready for a general election, meanwhile an interim government will be set up by August/September, according to Reuters.  The military government confirmed it has no plans to revive the rice-pledging scheme. India India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $440 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about $25 per ton from a month ago, and down about $5 per ton from a year ago. In anticipation of El Nino and its negative effect on monsoon rains, the Indian government has prepared contingency plans, according to the new Agriculture Minister.  However, analysts expect India’s wholesale prices to remain stable since the government has sufficient stocks, according to the Economic Times. Planting for karif rice crop (the main rice crop, June-December) has begun in India and about 238,000 hectares were completed as of June 13, according to the Indian Agriculture Ministry.  This is about 70% less than the 794,000 hectares planted during the same time last year. The Indian government is being urged by analysts to reform the paddy rice procurement process, recommending government agencies buy milled rice directly from millers. Starting in September, the government will begin using Global Positioning System (GPS) and Radio-frequency Identification devices (RFID) to track the 300 trucks that carry food grains from storage to destination, in efforts to curb embezzlement during transit. Kaipad rice – a red, non-sticky rice variety grown organically in the southern state of Kerala – is now registered in the Geographical Indications Registry (GIR) with the Government of India. Vietnam Vietnam 5% broken rice (new crop) is today shown at about $405 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week and a month ago and up about $30 per ton from a year ago. During the first five months of the year, Vietnam exported about 2.335 million tons of rice, according to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), about 16% less than the same time in 2013.  During the month of May, Vietnam exported only about 585,536 tons of rice, about 10% less than in May 2013. A VFA advisor has warned Vietnam’s rice exporters that overdependence on exports to China and subsequent loss of traditional markets may prove risky. The Philippines Agriculture Secretary has been accused of striking a “midnight deal” – including illegal kickbacks - with Vietnam’s state-owned exporting company VINAFOOD II in April. Pakistan Pakistan 5% broken rice is today quoted at about $450 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about $25 per ton from a month ago and down about $10 per ton from a year ago. Many rice exporters in Pakistan have begun diverting their Mexico-bound rice shipments to African countries after Mexico rejected about 100 Pakistan rice containers for being contaminated with the Khapra beetle, according to local sources. Pakistan’s opposition party, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), has urged the government to fix minimum support price for basmati rice at Rs. 3,000 per 40-kilogram bag (about $755 per ton) to help rice farmers and exporters be more competitive with Indian and Thai exporters, according to local sources. The Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation (PASSCO) will reopen tenders to sell about 201,000 tons of rice since the previous tender attracted prices that were too low, according to local sources. Brazil Brazil 5% broken rice was last shown at about $665 per ton. Uruguay and Argentina 5% broken rice today quoted at about $625 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month ago, and down about $5 per ton from a year ago. The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by CEPEA reached at about 36.74 real per 50 kilograms as of June 9, 2014, down about 0.2% from about 36.83 real per 50 kilograms recorded on June 2, 2014.   In terms of USD per ton, the index reached at about $328.5 per ton on June 9, 2014, down about 0.2% from about $329 per ton recorded on June 2, 2014. Brazil’s Conab has lowered its paddy rice production forecast for 2013-14 to about 12.25 million tons, about 3% less than its previous estimate and about 4% more than production in 2012-13. U.S. U.S. 4% broken rice to shown at about $580 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $5 per ton and $15 per ton from a month and a year ago respectively. Chicago rough rice futures for July delivery remained low this week but began recovering Thursday and Friday.  Futures opened at $14.100 on Monday and got dangerously low to dropping below $14.000 before recovering to close at $14.420 on Thursday and $14.500 on Friday. The USDA estimates that as of June 8, 93% of the U.S. rice crop had emerged – the same amount as this time last year and only 1% less than the previous 5-year average.  The USDA considers 69% of the U.S. crop to be in good-to-excellent condition. The U.S. cash rice market was consistent this week with old crop offers unchanged near $15.55 per cwt fob farm (about $343 per ton) for June shipment, although most still hope to net $16.11-$16.33 per cwt fob farm (about $355 per ton).  Bids from exporters hovered at $15.50 per cwt (about $342 per ton) for June all week and small mills were bidding around $16.00 per cwt (about $353 per ton) for the same delivery period. Other Markets Trade Ministry of Iraq has issued a tender to purchase about 30,000 tons of rice from Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Vietnam, and the U.S., with a deadline of June 23 for receiving bids, according to Bloomberg. South Korea issued a tender on June 3 to purchase 4,039 tons of Australian origin Jungripjong Tome medium brown rice, according to Korea Agro-Fisheries and Food Trade. The Philippines government has unveiled a road map for a new rice sufficiency program aiming to produce about 19.07 million tons of paddy rice in 2014, about 3.4% more than in 2013, according to local sources. Separately, total rice stocks in the Philippines as of May 1 reached about 2.52 million tons, an increase of about 16% from April and a decrease of about 3% from May of last year, according to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics. The rice stocks with the National Food Authority (NFA) (which account for 18.5% of total stocks) stood at about 470,000 tons, down about 23% from about 610,000 tons recorded in May 2013.  Analysts anticipate Indonesia to more than double its rice imports in 2014 to about 1.5 million tons, due to the threat of El Nino. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates China’s 2014 paddy rice production to increase to about 207.440 million tons (about 145.2 million tons, basis milled), about 2% higher than 2013’s production, due to higher planting area, good weather, and continued government support for the rice sector. Paddy rice production in Australia for MY 2013-14 (April 2013-March 2014) is expected to decline to about 825,000 tons, about 29% less than in MY 2012-13, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES). Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $440 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month ago. Bangladesh’s rice import value has increased to around $284.72 million in the first ten months of FY 2013-14 (July 2013-April 2014), up 14 fold from the previous year, based on the latest letter of credit data released by the Bangladesh Bank.  According to local sources, the increase in imports is due to high domestic rice prices, appreciation of the local currency against the dollar, and a decline in global rice prices. The UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) has estimated Sri Lanka’s paddy rice production will decline to about 3.9 million tons in 2014.  This is about 16% less than in 2013, and is largely due to reduction in output. The Malaysian Agricultural Research and Development Institute (Mardi) will begin growing aerobic rice variety MRIA1, which needs 50% less water, in 1,000 hectares across Malaysia by the end of the year. Rice farmers in Costa Rica led by the National Assembly of Rice Producers (NARP) have urged the government to limit rice imports to protect local farmers, according to local sources. Italy is concerned about duty-free rice imports from Cambodia to the EU and plans to submit a report to the EU about the consequences of duty free rice imports on the EU rice sector. Milled rice production in the EU may decline to about 1.78 million tons in MY 2013-14 (September 2013-August 2014), which is about 6% less than in MY 2012-13, according to the EU Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development.

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