The Trade, Shipping and Finance Wizard

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Navigate the commodities markets with Freight and Spreads

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Doing a Flush, Laytime and Demurrage under the Beepeevoy 4, eurogas/cbob t/a arb talk

Doing a Flush, Laytime and Demurrage under the Beepeevoy 4, eurogas/cbob t/a arb talk

Physical, shipping & contractual aspects of trading are what is driving the show in the energy marine trade. In this article, I will first give explanations about limitations occurring at refined products terminals. Secondly, I will introduce the BPVOY 4 and … Continue reading

 
Posted in Energy marine trade, Shipping Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Why Canadian wheat has not been to the Brazilian market? top read

  Why Canadian wheat has not been to the Brazilian market? By Gabriel Ferreira The Argentine planting was far short of its potential in the 2013 crop losses from drought in the American wheat crop in 2014, local prices increased … Continue reading

 
Posted in Agriculturals, Grain Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Charterers Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Cargill, Vitol are in the Ddiver seat, Owners in the rear seat

Charterers Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Cargill, Vitol are in the Ddiver seat, Owners in the rear seat

Charterers Rio Tinto, Anglo American Cargill, Vitol are in the driver seat; Owners in the backseat.  The collapse of Iron Ore prices and economic woes in China have received an unprecedented attention level in the dry-bulk shipping and in the mining … Continue reading

 
Posted in Basis and spreads, Drybulk Commodities, Drybulk shipping, Shipping, Trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Oil and Wheat are “Smiling”-Commodity risk management

Oil and Wheat are “Smiling”-Commodity risk management

Oil and Wheat are “Smiling”. Commodity risk management Black-Sea is crucial in the commodity trade especially for Energy and Grains. The Ukrainian crisis increases probabilities of tail events or extreme events in Oil and Wheat. Here comes the challenges: Dealing with the constant … Continue reading

 
Posted in Energy complex, Finance, Grain Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , The role and the interpretation of some Incoterms for Commodity Traders.

The role and the interpretation of some Incoterms for Commodity Traders.

What is FOB ? Do you know what does it mean ?  I thought so. However, as demonstrated by Mr. Laurence Bacon, in a transaction FOB can mean pretty anything. How to Avoid Unnecessary Disputes in Trading Contracts ? FOB Question. … Continue reading

 
Posted in Trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Traders – Secrets and Commodities Part 3: A Masterpiece on the economics of the commodity firms

The Economics of Commodity Trading firms demystified the commodity trading business.

This paper is sponsored by Trafigura and is authored by Professor Craig Pirrong.The text is thick, (a 2-3 hours minimum reading),

source: Trafigura

Quote 1: The shale gas boom in the United States, and the resulting decline in natural gas prices, has substantially reduced the demand for coal for electricity generation in the United States. This freed substantial quantities of coal for export, but there is inadequate infrastructure to accommodate an increase in export flows. Trafigura determined that the Burnside Terminal is ideally placed to alleviate this bottleneck“.

Quote 2: “A primary advantage of private ownership is the superior alignment of incentives between managers and equity owners. Managers who own small (or no) stake in an enterprise have an incentive to act in ways that benefit themselves, but are harmful to equity holders. For instance, they may consume excessive perquisites, invest in low-returning prestige or empire-building projects, or run ill-advised risks: the managers enjoy the benefits of these activities, but the outside investors bear the costs.”

I wonder who he meant, any suggestions readers ?

Pirrong is professor at University of Houston and has worked for the CME and Trafigura, If I’m not mistaken, he is also blogging as the Streetwiseprofessor. -:)

© 2014 -The Trade, Shipping and Finance Wizard

Appetizers:

“Traders – Secrets and Commodities Part 1

Traders – Secrets and Commodities Part 2

 

 

Posted in Basis and spreads, Finance, Trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Grain & Oilseeds: Cash Markets, Logistics & Freight Report.

Grain & Oilseeds: Cash Markets, Logistics & Freight Report.

click here for higher resolution 4/30/2014 Record-High non-commercial short position, corn price demand elasticity ( from ethanol, exports, feeds), On-Farm Storage and Ukraine have triggered a rally in Corn. Record-high non commercial short positions (funds), before the rally. Hog farmers to slaughter … Continue reading

 
Posted in Basis and spreads, Grain Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

T/A coal arb for U.S Coal, a coal-to-gas switch made in Europe

EIA forecasts average delivered coal prices the electric power industry will be $2.35/MMBtu in 2014. Coal delivered to German utilities along the Rhin can fetch $4/MMBTU while gas is often priced above $12/MMBTU.

 

In Europe, gas prices and Russia woes increase appetite for pulling the coal-to-gas switch. Prices are incentivizing unused coal capacity to come on and back out natural gas demand.

Meanwhile, investments in coal supply and coal power generation face high investment risk because of the climate policy uncertainty so coal mines have turned to coal traders with the aim of securing the financing and marketing of their coal.

 

-The Trade, Shipping and Finance Wizard

Navigating the commodities markets with Freight and Spreads

 

Posted in Basis and spreads, Drybulk Commodities, Drybulk shipping Tagged , , , , LP Trade: Surfing the wave with freight and spreads.

LP Trade: Surfing the wave with freight and spreads.

Arbs have no predetermined logic, they arise from the freewill of the market. After Fukushima and a subsequent shutdown of the japan nuclear power industry, Japan has been buying 120 LNG cargoes/month. Consider Japan PM Abe turning-on its nuke power plants … Continue reading

 
Posted in Basis and spreads, Energy marine trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Cargill losses

Cargill losses

Cargill losses Minneapolis-based Cargill, a top global commodities trader, was hit by a triple-whammy of unexpected events, including a surge in energy prices in January, rail backlogs, and the rejection of U.S. corn shipments by China. *Reuters, April 8th Back in … Continue reading

 
Posted in Agriculturals, Grain, Trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Canadian/U.S energy marine trade in the context of NAFTA and the Jones Act

  More about the JA  Jones Act: Freight and Energy Markets. U.S CBP, NAFTA, Jones Act Compliance for the U.S Energy Trade.  Private Equity and The Joneses

 
Posted in Energy marine trade Tagged , , , Brent/Urals, the risk takers, the short haul and the long haul

Brent/Urals, the risk takers, the short haul and the long haul

The Short Haul Ural/Brent dated is one of the most dynamic semi-arbitrages that exists in the oil market. The spread is the bread and butter of many energy traders a good gauge of liquidity and demand for this sour grade … Continue reading

 
Posted in Basis and spreads, Energy marine trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , LP Arb ARA/USG/ASIA and the LP Marine Trade, Timing and Location are Money.

LP Arb ARA/USG/ASIA and the LP Marine Trade, Timing and Location are Money.

In the LPG, Spot freight rates assessed daily by the Baltic Exchange were at record levels of this month.  2014/03/07 I previously reported  LPG TANKER C/P BW MAPLE 2007 BLT  , LD PT TARGA GALENA PARK USG DIS PRT ARA/NWE. … Continue reading

 
Posted in Energy marine trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , U.S CBP, NAFTA, Jones Act Compliance for the U.S Energy Trade.

U.S CBP, NAFTA, Jones Act Compliance for the U.S Energy Trade.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and NAFTA(North American Free Trade Agreement) allow Canadian and American traders to maintain a continual flow of energy products between borders without problems- Largely duty-free. It is the responsibility of each company to understand and comply with … Continue reading

 
Posted in Energy complex, Energy marine trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Crude by Rail: Shippers Getting on the right track with DOT Emergency Restriction/ Prohibition Order “DOT-OST-2014-0025″ and DOT-111 Tank-Car rule

Crude by Rail: Shippers Getting on the right track with DOT Emergency Restriction/ Prohibition Order “DOT-OST-2014-0025″ and DOT-111 Tank-Car rule

  Previously I’ve discuss the subject of the Crude by Rail business, its profitability and its ups and downs Not a good time to buy “Crude-By-Rail Puts” http://wp.me/p3k7lL-12M In the light of continued dangers associated  with crude oil by rail, the United … Continue reading

 
Posted in Energy complex Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , “Traders – Secrets and Commodities Part 2

“Traders – Secrets and Commodities Part 2

AGEFI (l’agence économique et financière à Genève), AGEFI is seen as the”WSJ ” of Geneva: it is a highly regarded financial information provider. This month, AGEFI Indices has a special edition produced by members of the Geneva Trading & Shipping Association (GTSA), the Association is … Continue reading

 
Posted in Finance, Trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Viterra/Glencore Grain taking advantage of rates available to cover 2014 shipments + New basis for Baltic Exchange Capesize vessel.

Viterra/Glencore Grain taking advantage of rates available to cover 2014 shipments + New basis for Baltic Exchange Capesize vessel.

February 24th Charts are taking advantage of rates available to cover their 2014 freight at very low levels: Dry-Bulk Shipping Capesize/Panamax daily rate ratio dropped to a 15-year Low Panamax This week Viterra/Glencore Grain has fixed a 77,525 DWT 2014 BLT Panamax $15,800 … Continue reading

 
Posted in Drybulk shipping, Shipping Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , Chart of the Week: Corn Sugar HFSC55 vs Fructose Sugar spread  a 15 year high.

Chart of the Week: Corn Sugar HFSC55 vs Fructose Sugar spread  a 15 year high.

HSFC55 over Sugar Monthly 1999-2014 On the international market Sugar is at 14c/pound, imported sugar delivered in NY is at 19c/pound while Corn HFCS 55 is priced at 29c/pound. North American Food Industry will adapt their Recipe/blend in 14′ because … Continue reading

 
Posted in Agriculturals, Drybulk Commodities Tagged , Corn Demand Renaissance driven by Ethanol

Corn Demand Renaissance driven by Ethanol

  Corn Demand Renaissance driven by Ethanol Sunday, February 9, 2014 U.S. produced corn-ethanol is the world’s lowest cost liquid transportation fuel because of relationship between Ethanol, its co-products(DDGS) and feedstocks (NG, Corn…) USA has cheapest NG in the world … Continue reading

 
Posted in Basis and spreads, Drybulk Commodities, Energy complex, Grain, Trade Tagged , , , , Dry-Bulk Shipping Capesize/Panamax daily rate ratio dropped to a 15-year Low.

Dry-Bulk Shipping Capesize/Panamax daily rate ratio dropped to a 15-year Low.

Sunday, February 9, 2014 Dry-Bulk Shipping In September 2009 Capesize/Panamax daily ratio has sank to parity, at that point preceded a strong rally in the Capesize. With the exception of acutely depressed markets such as the 4Q-08, the Capsize and Panamax … Continue reading

 
Posted in Drybulk shipping, Shipping Tagged , , , Costa Rica’s chocolate comeback, The journey of cocoa, from bean to bar.

Costa Rica’s chocolate comeback, The journey of cocoa, from bean to bar.

Although cocoa is one of the world’s smallest soft commodity markets, it has global implications on cocoa importers and exporters, food and candy producers, and the retail industry. Historically, from 1960 to 2014, Cocoa has reached an all time high of … Continue reading

 
Posted in Agriculturals, Drybulk Commodities Tagged , , , , , , , The Marine Trade Discounting Libyan oil ? no more… Contagion to the Global Aframax

The Marine Trade Discounting Libyan oil ? no more… Contagion to the Global Aframax

Back in November 2013, I postulated that the Energy Marine Trade was discounting Libyan oil for the oil markets. Idea was then that N.Afr/Euromed Spot Aframax was reflecting Libya in terms of oil market expectations. Chart 1) Spot WS aframax during 2013 Chart 2) Spot … Continue reading

 
Posted in Energy marine trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , , Wild Wild Winter, Fireballs in the USNE

Wild Wild Winter, Fireballs in the USNE

It’s Chinese New Year, I’d like to start by wishing Happy New Year wishing prosperity to you and your family. During this period of the year we regrettably lose contact with our Chinese friends in the Dry-Bulk cargo trade, our RFPs are left … Continue reading

 
Posted in Energy complex, Energy marine trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , “Traders -Le marché secret des matieres premieres” a real commodity infos curator.

“Traders -Le marché secret des matieres premieres” a real commodity infos curator.

French-German TV network ARTE did a documentary on commodities during the rapid expansion of this global trade from the mid 2000′s to nowadays. I’ve watched it a couple of times, each time I see different angles. “Traders -Le marché secret … Continue reading

 
Posted in Agriculturals, Drybulk Commodities, Energy complex, Trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , WTI Crude Futures/ICE Brent : a weather risk differential value between Europe and the United States.

WTI Crude Futures/ICE Brent : a weather risk differential value between Europe and the United States.

Traders have some major economic functions: balancing supply between regions, providing liquidity and relieving refiners from their inventories. It is a game of expectations; these guys take risks to load cargoes, not always knowing who will be the buyer, and pay … Continue reading

 
Posted in Basis and spreads, Energy complex Tagged , , , , Charts of the week Urals/Brent Dated NWE and BDTI

Charts of the week Urals/Brent Dated NWE and BDTI

Ural/Brent dated is one of the most dynamic arbitrage in the oil market. The spread is a good gauge of liquidity and demand for this sour grade in NWE.  Urals FOB Ust-Luga* discount on Brent Dated  in NWE is under 2$, … Continue reading

 
Posted in Energy marine trade Tagged , , , Grain Market & Freight report H.S.S/Panamax 4TC

Grain Market & Freight report H.S.S/Panamax 4TC

Grain Markets are down these days but grain is still moving down in the supply chain from farms to markets. Yesterday, the first wheat cargo of 2014 (a 55,000 MT soft red wheat cargo destination: N. Afr. ) was fixed … Continue reading

 
Posted in Basis and spreads, Drybulk Commodities, Drybulk shipping, Grain, Shipping Tagged , , , , AGs, Energy Complex, Trading,  & Freight for 2014

AGs, Energy Complex, Trading,  & Freight for 2014

The views and opinions expressed  are those of the author and  do not reflect the views  of  consultants mentioned. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and strategy evaluation.  The markets and your competitive landscape is changing. Discipline, Discipline, Discipline ! You must … Continue reading

 
Posted in Agriculturals, Basis and spreads, Drybulk Commodities, Drybulk shipping, Energy complex, Energy marine trade, Finance, Grain, Shipping, Trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Not a good time to buy “Crude-By-Rail Puts”

Not a good time to buy “Crude-By-Rail Puts”

Do you remember when the runaway train transporting crude exploded and killed 47 people in the Quebec town of Lac-Megantic last July ? Just two days before the end of 2013, a train carrying grain derailed first, then knocked several … Continue reading

 
Posted in Energy complex, Finance Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , Private Equity and The Joneses

Private Equity and The Joneses

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE: KMP) announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire American Petroleum Tankers (APT) and State Class Tankers (SCT) for $962 million. So why Kinder Morgan (KM) wants to integrate marine trade into their … Continue reading

 
Posted in Energy marine trade, Shipping Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , Dry-Bulk Freight, FFAs, Commodities trends and China’s policies

Dry-Bulk Freight, FFAs, Commodities trends and China’s policies

Short Covering and Commodities Re-Stocking The papers have cover in early Nov. The heavy Dec iron ore demand (re-stocking might be a more correct term) appears to have contributed to the last month rally. Arb Participants have taken advantage of a Long … Continue reading

 
Posted in Basis and spreads, Drybulk Commodities, Drybulk shipping, Finance Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Pipelines are impacting the WTI Curve, Spreads winter 14′.

Pipelines are impacting the WTI Curve, Spreads winter 14′.

During 2008-2012, Billions of dollars were poured into structures created by banks (ex: ETF physically backed by Oil) and after Lehman collapse, oil was a reasonable price and bets in the oil curve were stable on the rise.  Production was rising, prices were … Continue reading

 
Posted in Basis and spreads, Energy complex Tagged , , , , , The Myth of lucrative asian markets for Canadian Heavy Sour

The Myth of lucrative asian markets for Canadian Heavy Sour

Summary: Shipping Tar-Sands from Alberta to the pacific coast is believed to be the fastest and cheapest route to the world-market but the reality is maybe different for Canadian Heavy Sour*. Where is  the  refining demand for Heavy Sour ? … Continue reading

 
Posted in Energy complex Tagged , , , , , , , , Energy East: Canada’s Oil Imports, Pipelines and the East-West Equalization Conundrum

Energy East: Canada’s Oil Imports, Pipelines and the East-West Equalization Conundrum

  Canada has the ambition to become an energy superpower. By 2025, Alberta oil output will more than double to 3.5 million barrels a day.[1] One persisting enigma is that Canada still buy imported crude from the Atlantic Basin priced on Brent and sells low its … Continue reading

 
Posted in Energy complex Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Protected: CapePmx DryBulk Freight, a very slow November. Wet: VLCCs at a 3 years high, LPG rates at all-time High.

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

 
Posted in Drybulk shipping, Energy marine trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , Portrait of Bernd, Trader at major Swiss-Based Commodity House Firm.

Portrait of Bernd, Trader at major Swiss-Based Commodity House Firm.

Context: Bernd is a young trader with a major house based in the Canton of Zürich. What he told us is that to be a good trader (small or big), you need to analyze the market to foresee the trading opportunity, … Continue reading

 
Posted in Drybulk Commodities Tagged , The Marine Trade is Discounting Libyan oil.

The Marine Trade is Discounting Libyan oil.

Libya has been extremely disruptive for oil markets until recently. It now seems that disruptions are contained more inside Libya, (or they still moving world markets but to a lesser extent)… According to Platts(London), Shipowners have started asking additional payments from charterers … Continue reading

 
Posted in Energy complex, Energy marine trade, Shipping, Trade Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , Urea/Corn Spread USG

Urea/Corn Spread USG

A word about Fertilizers: Nitrogen deleveraging EPA released the new proposal for advanced biofuels implying a corn ethanol mandate range of 12.7 billion to 13.2 billion gallons. Based on the 14.4 billion gallons market expectations, the new range proposal will remove between [-10,9 and -15.42] millions … Continue reading

 
Posted in Agriculturals, Basis and spreads, Drybulk Commodities Tagged , , , , , ,

Protected: Dry Bulk FFAs Capesize, Panamax Nov 10th Cheat Sheet

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

 
Posted in Drybulk shipping Tagged , , , , , , The Baltic, Time-Charter Equivalent (TCE) and Charts explained

The Baltic, Time-Charter Equivalent (TCE) and Charts explained

Baltic is one good barometer of the world economy. It measures freight market S/D and the cargo movements intensity in dry bulk commodities. Taking in 23 shipping routes measured on a timecharter basis USD/day, the index covers Handysize, Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize … Continue reading

 
Posted in Drybulk shipping Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Protected: The Grain Roulette is back.

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

 
Posted in Agriculturals, Drybulk Commodities, Grain Tagged , , , , , , , , Laytime, Demurrage/Despatch for the commodity trader, NORGRAIN89

Laytime, Demurrage/Despatch for the commodity trader, NORGRAIN89

  When two parties arrange for the sale and shipping of bulk commodities products there are typically 3 types of contracts: Trade, Shipping and Finance one Trade contract outlines the commodity transaction between a seller and buyer:  SPAs (Sales and … Continue reading

 
Posted in Drybulk shipping, Energy marine trade, Finance Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Protected: Spring/HRW wheat spread playing tricks

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

 
Posted in Basis and spreads, Drybulk Commodities, Grain Tagged , , , , , , , 英文/ DaLian Commodity Exchange: Changing the Iron Ore Trade Game.

英文/ DaLian Commodity Exchange: Changing the Iron Ore Trade Game.

Dalian Commodity Exchange 英文 : Changing the Iron Ore Trade Game. Iron ore futures for physical delivery debuted on the Dalian Commodity Exchange on Oct 18th 2013. DCE are the first contracts with physical delivery in the world, and it is hoped that the … Continue reading

 
Posted in Drybulk Commodities, Finance, Trade Tagged , , ,

Protected: Cape/Panamax Dry Bulk Freight (FFAs) spreads and Calendar Spreads Oct 24th

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Posted in Basis and spreads, Drybulk shipping, Shipping Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , US Oil Embargo? still supportive for Brent/WTI spread

US Oil Embargo? still supportive for Brent/WTI spread

In US Oil Embargo? by Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co, the context is a reaction to one editorial made by our colleagues at the Financial Times urging America to lift its ban on crude exports. Let’s put Shipping aside, for a moment. US=Demand U.S … Continue reading

 
Posted in Basis and spreads, Energy complex Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , With no Top-to-the-bottom USDA Reports, Markets are transmitting the information  from the bottom to the top.

With no Top-to-the-bottom USDA Reports, Markets are transmitting the information  from the bottom to the top.

thinking yield corn soy Yield, Price and Profit/Acre… Why many Corn farmers are still winning in the Bear Run ? Use this Spreadsheet, to see how farmers will make a better profit $ /acre, ROI with Yield despite a Bear … Continue reading

 
Posted in Agriculturals, Drybulk Commodities, Grain Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Protected: Cape/Panamax $4TC Front-Month Spread Cheat Sheet and Iron Ore/Coal Context Model Oct13

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

 
Posted in Basis and spreads, Drybulk shipping, Shipping Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Fight for control over Libya’s Oil Resources: extremely disruptive for Oil Markets.

Fight for control over Libya’s Oil Resources: extremely disruptive for Oil Markets.

Again and again the Oil Market Structure is affected by disruptive elements coming out from Libya. Political upheaval and Confusion. The guys that were hired by the Libyan central government to watch the oil are now turning back against their government. … Continue reading

 
Posted in Basis and spreads, Energy complex Tagged , , , , , Agricultural Markets: Have they ceased to exist since the USDA shutdown?

Agricultural Markets: Have they ceased to exist since the USDA shutdown?

Agricultural Markets: Have they ceased to exist since the USDA shutdown? Ask Markets:  No. Since the USDA shutdown, the partisans of the free markets in the U.S Agriculture are getting a test drive of their ideas.  http://www.cato.org/multimedia/daily-podcast/downsizing-usda Context: Over the … Continue reading

 
Posted in Agriculturals, Drybulk Commodities, Grain Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,